Phurther Photon pimpage

Herewith, another duplicate of an update I just put on the Dan's Data front page:

The Photon Light people are doing the free/flat-rate shipping thing again. All orders ship free in the USA, or for a flat rate of only $US4 for international deliveries. No matter how much stuff you buy.

(And you still get volume discounts, which start at quite small "volumes".)

Their "Knives and Tools" department also now has a selection of Leatherman tools, including the nifty new Skeletool and Skeletool CX and the classic Leatherman Wave. If you want something key-ring sized, they've also got the not-at-all-new but still-very-good Leatherman Micra, and three models of the more recent "Squirt" - the P4, S4 and E4.

The full-sized tools are all as cheap as I've seen them anywhere; the Micras and Squirts cost a buck or three more than the usual online-store price. But the free-or-cheap shipping deal more than makes up for that.

There's also a closeout deal on the versatile "Fusion" light I reviewed years ago. It's not cutting-edge technology any more, but it's also not almost sixty bucks any more. While they last, Fusions - including the funky red- or blue-beam versions - are now only $US31.95.

And, as usual, if you follow my affiliate links and then buy something, I'll get a cut!

Steady as she goes, toward the cliff

Everybody else gets to sound off about the global financial crisis without actually knowing much about it, so I was pleased when a reader invited me to take my turn:

What's your take on the global financial crisis? You've never indicated you know anything whatsoever about finance, but you're usually "pretty on the ball" about everything else, so I though maybe you'd feel like blogging on this.

Ryan

Indeed I do not know a lot about economics. My knowledge pretty much stops at how tax brackets work, and that copper is not a precious metal. But since readers of this blog know pretty much everything, I presume there will soon be some +5 Insightful comments at the bottom of this page, correcting the ghastly errors I am surely about to make.

(Or maybe there'll just be one guy saying that this is what we get for not listening to Lyndon LaRouche.)

I've no real opinion about what's going to happen to the US and/or global economies in the short term. Fortunately for me, I'm in Australia, which doesn't look like being squashed too hard. Australia has a healthy commodities sector, and major Australian financial institutions don't seem to have much exposure to the US problems. Yet.

In the long term, though, the USA and countries that depend upon it economically - which means just about all of them - are going to have to feel a lot of economic pain.

Both Presidential candidates know this, on account of how they're not idiots (so yes, I do suspect that only one of the vice-presidential candidates knows it too). But they wouldn't say a word about it even if you tortured them, on account of the great American allergy to ever paying more than about half of the tax that people in much nicer countries seem quite happy to pay.

Because the USA is taking on such colossal government debt, for the war(s) and the various bailouts, it seems to me to have only three options.

1: Just keep doing what it's doing, paying interest on the old debt by taking on new debt.
2: Jack up taxes and/or reduce spending so it doesn't have to increase its level of indebtedness, or may actually be able to pay the debt down.
3: Say "screw it", get drunk, and print more money.

The second approach is a sure-fire vote-loser. If it were me then I'd start out by taxing the absolute balls off the owners of any house of worship that seats more than a thousand people, but the USA is a country where 21% of the atheists apparently believe in God, so that probably wouldn't work too well.

The third option is what people often seem to think the USA is doing now - "creating" new money to bail out the financial sector. It's an awe-inspiringly dumb thing to do, though, and even the Bush administration isn't stupid enough to try it. (Robert Mugabe seems just fine with it, though.)

What the USA is actually doing, and what I presume they'll continue to do, is option 1, steady-as-she-goes. As long as people are reasonably confident that the government isn't going to fall on its sword by refusing to pay up when bonds mature, and that inflation isn't going to start running fast enough that a bond with a lousy 4% return will be worth less than you paid for it when it matures, then people will keep buying bonds, and the Treasury can just issue more and more of them and hope there's enough of a market to get 'em all sold. China is as addicted to selling stuff to Americans as Americans are addicted to buying it, so I presume it'll keep that economic perpetual-motion machine rolling, even if inflation does make bonds lose real value over time.

The borrow-more-to-pay-your-loans-off approach is an obvious loser for normal personal finance, but I think whole countries - and businesses, for that matter - can actually make it work, if their increase in national productivity means that their debt is not increasing, proportionally speaking. If you used to owe a million dollars and make 20 million dollars, and now owe two million and make 50 million, then proportionally speaking you've reduced your debt. You should find it easier to service, or pay down, the second debt than the first one.

During the terms of Republican presidents since Reagan, though, the USA has been taking on debt much faster than it's been increasing production, no matter which way you look at it (some people apparently regard this as a good thing).

The exact numbers are squirrelly - like unemployment statistics, they get harder and harder to measure the closer you look - but the cost of the wars and the 2008 bailouts will unquestionably greatly exceed Reagan's Savings and Loan "jackpot".

All of this has just got to shake through into a serious quality-of-life reduction for the average American some time soon. Either jacked-up taxes or a severely devalued currency, I think. The US national debt is overwhelmingly in US dollars, so if the $US drops to five Euro cents, it'll be much easier to dig enough stuff out of the ground to pay off the debt. (But a Toyota Camry will cost half a million dollars.)

There are ways in which the USA could spectacularly reduce governmental spending and thus make the situation far easier to handle, but I strongly doubt the most obvious one - giant military cutbacks, including closing many of the USA's more-than-700 military bases all over the world - has any chance of flying. The USA could cut four 400 billion dollars out of its annual military budget and still be spending twice as much as anyone else, but this sort of thing is so far-out that you won't even find the option to do it in "budget simulators".

Sci-fi writer Charles Stross wrote a very interesting essay about the current situation the other day. I agree with him that the USA's determination to not bend before the economic hurricane means we may see the world situation change far faster than anybody would have predicted only a few years ago.

(This Gawker piece is excellent, too.)

Yes. Yes it does.

I have just, by idly clicking through from the Wigu/Overcompensating guy's pictures of his righteously necrotic brown-recluse-spider bite, discovered that there is a Flickr group called "Does this look infected to you?"

That is all.

My third hip

As I mentioned in this article, as soon as I saw Theodore Gray's prosthetic hip joint, I had to get one of my own. (Theodore's is one of the samples for his Periodic Table Table; he's pretty sure it belongs in the cobalt collection.)

Artificial hip

And here mine is. I bought it on eBay; it cost me a total of $AU23.38 including delivery.

I've only got the hip part, not the corresponding socket part - which in this case would have been polyethylene, I think. But this is the interesting part, if you ask me. Mine even has a couple of nifty holes in the shaft, instead of the less elegant solid shaft of Theodore's. As I mentioned in that article, I find it makes a very acceptable ray gun.

I think it's probably made from a cobalt chrome molybdenum alloy. It's very slightly magnetic; you can't tell if you're just holding even a rare-earth magnet in one hand and the hip in the other, but when I hung a magnet from a string, I could get it to stick to the implant very slightly.

I'm not sure what company made it. There's a logo on the side like an R with a line around it, like so:

R logo

If you recognise that, drop me a line.

After the logo, there's "52-0346 46mm" (46mm is the diameter of the ball on the end), then "CC" on the next line. Further down the shaft there's a serial number, T00991004.

I'll have to buff all that stuff off before I try to pass the implant off as alien technology.

(See also: My bone chisel!)

UPDATE: One or another of my readers can reasonably be expected to know absolutely anything, so I now know exactly what this prosthesis is.

Take it away, Charles the anaesthetist:

Your prosthesis is an Austin Moore Hemiarthroplasty prosthesis [yep; now that I've got that string to search for, I instantly found it], used to replace the femoral head in cases of subcapital fracture (fairly high) of the neck of femur where the fracture site is high enough to probably affect the blood supply to the femoral head, leading to necrosis. Because of this you can't just screw the fracture together (search DHS, CHS, or IMHS).

Neck of Femur fracture (NOF) is an old person's fracture, as such not a great load is expected on the hip, in terms of use and duration, thus the acetabular side (socket) is left as is (which is why the head is so large: total hip replacment prostheses have a much smaller head diameter).

An Austin Moore is uncemented, too: you ream to size and bang it in. There are cemented hemiarthroplasties that are a sort of half way position (more stable and durable, less loosening) between this and a THR (total hip replacement), but cementing a prosthesis in this patient population has a high intraoperative morbidity and mortality itself.

There is a very high mortality post NOF: not due solely to the fracture, but due to the clinical situation of these patients. If a younger person happened to NOF themselves, you might pin it first if you thought the head had any chance of survival, but if not, a THR is better.

The "R" is Richards, an orthopaedic company since absorbed into Smith and Nephew, along with others.

I used to have a Austin Moore as a gear shifter in my Kingswood wagon: it fit nicely in the hand!

Track hunting

New chunky Lego tracks

After my post the other day about that nifty Lego excavator, I've been hunting for more of those chunky new tread links, as well as the smaller old-style ones that you can drive with normal Technic gears. I posted part of this in a comment on the excavator post, but I've spent enough time messing around with this now that I reckoned it deserved its own post.

If you want lots of just one kind of Lego piece, the place to go is online Lego marketplace BrickLink. I got no results when I searched BrickLink for "technic link tread new", but when I searched for the new treads' part number, 57518, I got tons of hits.

The low price for the new chunky tread pieces on Bricklink is down around 15 US cents plus delivery, which is much cheaper than you'll get them for in any set. You can get the special wheels to drive the tracks very cheaply, too.

The best-value whole set for people who're hunting the new tread links is clearly set 7645, the "MT-61 Crystal Reaper" from the "Mars Mission" line. It's got a list price of $US50, but gives you seventy of the new Link Treads (in black instead of the Technic grey), and six large drive wheels, which can only otherwise be found in the monstrous 8275 Bulldozer (which is $US150, but has motors and 84 grey tread links).

The 8294 Excavator lists for ten US dollars more than the Crystal Reaper, but gives you only sixty tread links and four small drive wheels.

Seventy new tread links on BrickLink will only cost you ten or eleven dollars plus delivery, though. The small drive wheels come in at about 22 cents each, so you can pretty much get enough links and wheels to design an entire FedEx sorting facility for the price of the 8275 Bulldozer. The large drive wheels are rather more expensive.

The Crystal Reaper does have some other Technic pieces, though. Pins, gears, liftarms and even old-style studded beams, plus oddities like the three-axle bush. It's got a lot of space-y pieces as well, but it's surprisingly close to being a Mislabeled Technic Parts Pack. If you can get it for 20% off or something, and don't need nothing but tracks, do not hesitate.

Next, I started hunting through sets and BrickLink for the smaller old-style Technic Link Treads. Lego used to sell parts packs that contained nothing but these links, but the last of those came out in 1999, and is no longer available.

(And then there was the Chain Link Pack, which was even more awesome.)

Anyway, here are the small-tread options in the current set lineup.

The 7664 TIE Crawler lists for $US50 and has 164 links; that's 30.5 cents per link.

The giant 10144 Sandcrawler has 273 links, but costs $US140. That's 51 cents per link, but you of course get a ton of other parts too.

The 7787 Bat-Tank has 158 links - wrapped around it, so it looks like a Mark I Tank - but it's $US50, so you'll pay slightly more per link than you would for the identically-priced TIE Crawler. The Bat-Tank's other parts are a bit more Technic-y, though, and you do get a minifig Batman!

If you can find an 8288 Crawler Crane (it's a 2006 product), you'll get a lousy 86 old-type links for $US50, but the rest of its parts are almost all Technic. They include two Boat Weights, for people who want to add weight to part of a model but don't want - or are forbidden by the rules of the Lego Sumo competition - to just build a bunch of coins into it or something. You also get three of the uncommon flexible double axle joiner, one of the giant gear-toothed turntables like the one in the middle of the 8294 Excavator, and two kinds of string with "end studs". So this set is definitely worth looking for.

And then there's the 7626 Indiana Jones Jungle Cutter, which only costs $US40 but has a not-too-bad 86 tread links in it, plus a decent complement of other Technic pieces, well-armed minifigs, and little animals. A good one to snap up if it's on special.

BrickLink is still the easy value winner, though. As I write this, new and used old-type link treads are on BrickLink for around nine cents each, often from sellers with hundreds or thousands of them on sale. This seller in particular has several thousand, for 8.88 cents each, plus what ought to be pretty cheap shipping.

Oh, and if you want the standard 40-tooth big gears to drive your tracks, they start from less than fifty cents. (BrickLink's default "Best Price" search order seems to sort by colour, then by price; change it to "Lowest Price" to see the genuinely cheapest items first. Weirdly, the URL of the page only sometimes changes when you do a Lowest Price search; it didn't in this case, so all I can link to is the Best Price version, which starts with a bunch of gears in the probably-not-quite-what-you-want "Bionicle Red".)

So there you go. You'll be building your Crawler Transporter, six-metre crane or JCB JS220 in no time!

One of these things is not like the other

I'm a bit late on this one, but it's so hilarious that I simply must tell you about it, just in case you haven't seen it yourself.

This is, if you ask me, even funnier than the well-documented evolution of that Intelligent Design textbook.

I hadn't actually read Richard Dawkins' blog post about the hilarious stupidity of Turkish creationist Harun Yahya's glossy but rather poorly fact-checked book "Atlas of Creation".

(If Harun hasn't gotten around to sending you one for free yet you may be able to find a seller on Amazon!)

"Harun Yahya" is the pen name of one Adnan Oktar, a leading light in the burgeoning field of Islamic creationism, in which Muslims strive to demonstrate that their newer and more vibrant religion can outdo Christianity in every field, the stupider the better. Islamic creationism has found a de facto home in Turkey, and a de facto leader in Harun/Adnan. He has a Web site.

The problem Dawkins found with Atlas of Creation (instantly, upon opening the book at random) is not the usual distortions, misquotes and plain old lies that are the stock in trade of the jobbing creationist. The problem, rather, comes from the fact that the book contains many comparisons between fossil organisms and modern ones that're supposed to demonstrate that those organisms have not changed at all over millions of years. That is the entire thesis of the book.

That, in itself, would only actually be an argument against evolution if it were hard to find organisms which have changed over the years, which is of course not at all the case. Environments and ecological niches tend to change, applying selective pressure to the species that live there, which then change, or become extinct. Most organisms are not ferns or crocodiles, pretty much as adequate to their task today as they were before the first mammal had drawn breath.

The standard creationist tactic to deal with this awkward situation is to declare anything that looks as if it's changed to actually be two, or three, or as many as are necessary, entirely different species with no relationship at all. Any time you find a "missing link", they can therefore just say that now there are two more gaps that remain tellingly unfilled.

(In related news, it is physically impossible to close a door.)

But never mind that, because Dawkins found that the Atlas of Creation frequently fails to actually compare a fossil creature with a modern version of the same thing at all.

The first such mistake he found, where he first opened the book, was the claim that a fossil eel hadn't changed at all when compared with... a modern sea snake, which is actually a very different species.

There were many more. Sometimes the book fails to even compare a fossil with a living creature in the same subkingdom.

But the very finest comparisons were discovered by entomologist Steve Lew.

The makers of the Atlas of Creation, you see, apparently kept production costs down by just lifting pictures from all over the Internet. The problem with doing this - besides the tedious copyright-infringement stuff - is that you can't reliably tell what organism a picture is of just by looking at it. (Especially if you've got the level of knowledge about biology that's typical among famous creationists.) Go to a proper stock-photo outfit (or, in this case, some biology-photos resource, I suppose) and you're likely to find that when you ask for a picture of a caddis fly, you get a picture of a caddis fly.

If, on the other hand, your image requests are made in a more informal, Google-Imagey sort of way, you may give yourself away just a teeny bit.

As I write this, the third Google Images hit for "caddis fly" is from grahamowengallery.com - specifically, this page. If you go to that page, you shouldn't need even a rudimentary command of the English language to see that Graham Owen makes wonderfully realistic fake insects, using fly-tying techniques. A lot of his work is actually, in theory at least, usable for actual fishing, because it's tied around a hook like any other fly.

This detail escaped the worthies putting together the Atlas of Creation.

Creationism at its finest

So there it is, bold as brass in the middle of their glossy book: A fly in amber in the background, and a fishing fly with a bloody great hook sticking out of its arse in the foreground. They just Photoshopped out the background of Graham Owen's picture.

They also knocked off Mr Owen's "Red Hardy Spider" image from the same page. The hook's much harder to see there, but the nature of the page the image came from is just as bloody obvious.

(UPDATE: I e-mailed Graham Owen about this, and he told me that he's made a Web page about the image thievery! it turns out that they also knocked off his picture of a mayfly. And Graham confirmed for me that the makers of Atlas of Creation didn't even ask permission to use the pictures, much less pay to license them. Graham's now asked them about it, but they apparently can't take any time off from their busy job of being very pious and respectable followers of God to send him an answer about why they copied his photos without paying.)

Mr Oktar spoiled all the fun by writing a reply to Richard Dawkins, a Turkish newspaper that picked up the story, all the cool kids at school who won't play with him, et cetera, complaining about Dawkins' "terrible ignorance". He argues that "whether or not it is a model makes no difference", since the picture represents something that does actually exist, and then goes on to say "The fact that demolishes evolution is that the creature has remained unchanged for millions of years and that it completely refutes evolution."

Well, if it completely refutes evolution then I suppose it must demolish it as well, not to mention contradict it, destroy it, pulverise it and give it a very stern talking to. But I think I must have missed the part where evolution says that the phenotype of an organism must change over time.

The only reason to think this is the case is if you believe in the frequently-espoused but completely stupid "ladder" kind of evolution, where everything's striving to get "higher" all the time, and will surely achieve this goal. This is preposterous on its face - all these billions of years, and we've still got bacteria - but it's ubiquitous in lousy sci-fi. There, "evolutionary level" is a property that can be freely pushed one way or the other, so a ray gun or a defective time machine or whatever can "de-evolve" people into apes, or "evolve" them into huge-brained psychic ectomorphs or similarly super-intelligent "beings of pure energy".

If you don't get all of your knowledge of evolution from that one God-awful episode of Voyager, though, the fact that Richard Dawkins "never goes into the question of whether or not the caddis fly is still alive today" is not, as Yahya says, a dead giveaway that evolution is completely bogus.

Dawkins is, I think, reasonably sure that people already know that caddis flies still exist, and that ancient ones looked much like modern ones. If there's no great selective pressure on an organism, you shouldn't expect it to change much. If a particular organism was already very well adapted to its environment, and its environment has not greatly changed, then neither does the organism. Stop me if I'm going too fast for you here, creationists.

I think it still matters that they made such lousy image choices, though, because it's an entertaining case in point of the sloppiness of most, if not all, creationist arguments. Comparing fossils with unrelated animals, or fishing flies, is like your candidate making a speech in front of a picture of a military hospital... that turns out to actually be a picture of a similarly-named middle school. It shows that you're just not paying attention, even when you'll look like idiots if you get it wrong.

This doesn't, of course, matter to the creationist target market, who can't be expected to make it through any book that doesn't have pretty pictures (frequently including whatever holy book they claim to so fervently believe).

Adnan Oktar actually does, of course, believe that no species has ever significantly changed over time. (He's also pleased to point out that all terrorists are atheist "Darwinists"! I suppose that'd explain why they hate American soldiers so much.)

It's a little difficult to defend these beliefs logically, so he's taken the popular option in this situation and defended them legally instead. Richard Dawkins' site is, therefore, now unavailable in Turkey (or supposed to be, anyway), along with a variety of other sites that've irritated someone there. (Oktar's lawsuits are currently protecting Turkish Internet users from the whole of WordPress.com and Google Groups; the Turkish government blocks several other sites. At one point, the Turkish block list apparently included, on account of a typographical error, the unused imbd.com domain instead of the Internet Movie Database.)

Oktar's probably a bit too busy to start shooting off more lawsuits at the moment, since he's appealing his recent conviction for "creating an illegal organization for personal gain"; this is the latest instalment of a particularly distasteful story.

(When looking for more info about that, I found this thread on James Randi's forum, where one commenter points out that one of the numerous defective comparisons in the Atlas of Creation is between a fossilised spider crab and a contemporary crab spider. Next stop: A horseshoe crab, and a horseshoe!)

Once Oktar's dealt with his little legal problem, though, I presume he'll issue a flurry of lawsuits demanding that every site that's discussed this tragically hilarious story also be blocked in Turkey.

Sooner or later, Turkish Web browsers will only let you see harunyahya.com and discovery.org.

You need a Lego earthmover

Lego 8294

I had the Lego #8851 Pneumatic Excavator when I was a kid (and still have all the parts, natch), so when I noticed that Kmart here in Australia is currently selling the new and exciting #8294 linear-actuator Excavator for only $AU54 (US list price $US60!), I had to get one.

(OK, actually I got more than one. They also have the bigger #8295 Telescopic Handler for only $AU89 - list price $US90 in the States. The Handler only has one linear actuator in it, though; the Excavator has two. The sale's on until the 8th of October.)

Lego 8294 reaches out

Because the Excavator has only two actuators - the old pneumatic one had three - its bucket-hinge action is linked to the end segment of the arm. This makes it a bit less playable.

(The linear actuators are part of the new "Power Functions" motorised-model line, but are not themselves motorised unless you buy extra stuff. They're discussed in great detail on the excellent Technic Bricks.)

Apart from that, though, the new excavator is brilliant. I miss the more expensive old-style packaging you used to get with Lego; now each set is just a flimsy box full of bags. But I don't miss the old studded-beams Technic Lego itself at all. The new stuff makes it much easier to pack tons of mechanism into a small space, and if you just chug through the instructions without spending a lot of time puzzling over what in fact it is that you're building, it's a wonderful surprise when you stick it all together and suddenly find yourself looking at a freakin' gearbox.

Lego 8294 gearbox

The gearbox uses some specialised parts that've been around for years, but were new to me. In this case, they give you a shift lever with a neutral position in the middle, and either end of its throw linking a gear on the back of the Excavator to one of the two actuators.

(The actuators are powerful and accurate, but not what you'd call speedy. Frequent users may like to replace the gear on the back with a less pretty but more usable crank, or an electric motor - the instructions have a bit at the end that shows you how to add a Power Functions motor to the set. This, by the way, explains the funny little peg sticking up on one side of the tracked base; it restricts rotation of the top of the excavator for no purpose in the standard model, but if you add the motor, the turn-stop prevents you from twisting up the wire going from the battery pack in the base to the motor in the top part.)

New chunky Lego tracks

The new excavator has those new chunky tracks I was talking about the other day. Unlike the somewhat fragile old-style gear-drive tracks, the new ones are deliberately made to not hook together terribly strongly. So if you twist the track a bit, one of the links will click apart. That may put a kink in your plan to use these tracks for heavy-duty off-road motoring, but it may also cause your new Lego Panzer V to throw tracks about as easily as the real one did.

The #8294 excavator also comes with several stickers you're supposed to put on the pieces; I of course did not even glance at them. And it's got this unusual giant tile piece, which is only used in the alternate model. Lego have cut costs here, as well; you don't get instructions for the second model in the box, but have to download them instead.

I'd normally complain about this, since downloadable extras can reasonably be expected to not be available ten years down the track. But there's pretty much zero chance that it'll happen in this case; the fan community will provide, if Lego ever don't.

Bottle + Bottle + Scroll = Anvil

I do not like the phrase "this person has too much spare time".

It is severely overused, and is frequently deployed without the slightest thought, to unfairly denigrate someone who's done something quite wonderful.

I confess, however, that sometimes, through the laughter, I am entirely unable to avoid saying it.

Improbable Ultima IX construction

This is one of those times.

(There's more - much more - on the main U9 page here. You may never escape if you visit the home page.)